Want predictable winters? Climate Change says ‘Forget it’

Photo: Chicago native Jayden Porter, a sophomore at the Leelanau School, took advantage of warm weather to mountain bike on Jan. 17 on the school’s campus a mile northeast of Glen Arbor.

By Ross Boissoneau

Sun contributor

It’s winter, but the first half of January didn’t look or feel like it.

“It’s milder than normal. It may turn colder toward the end of the month (of January),” said Jeff Zoltowski, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service.

But there’s colder, and there’s cold. Where you need coats, hats, gloves, boots, and maybe a couple layers underneath. Where the snow crunches or squeaks under your feet, and the occasional peek from the sun sets the snow diamonds sparkling. Other than the pre-Thanksgiving and Christmastime blizzards, this year there’s been little evidence of the wintry weather we’ve come to expect.

Leelanau resident and retired meteorologist Dave Barrons, a familiar face on local television for many years, keeps a finger on the pulse of the weather. He says climate change is making expectations based on past years less reliable. “We’ve added more carbon dioxide to the air. Carbon dioxide holds more heat,” he said.

He goes on to explain how increased carbon dioxide levels are affecting the planet. “When I first started in weather, for a very long time there were 280 parts per million of carbon dioxide. Now it’s over 400.” That increase acts as insulation. “It’s like a blanket that holds heat,” he added.

Barrons said historical records indicate colder weather was more common going back 150-plus years. As example A, he pointed out that the first year in which there is a written record of whether West Grand Traverse Bay froze or not was in 1851. It was noted that year that the bay did not freeze, and he said such a distinction indicates that it was more likely at that time that the bay would freeze than it wouldn’t.

This year? The temperature for the bay on Jan. 13 was 40.1 degrees. While expected to drop to 36.3 degrees in the following 10 days, that’s a far cry from the bay freezing. “My sense is we won’t see it freeze,” said Barrons.

So, what is this weather doing for outdoor winter recreation? Nothing good, that’s for sure. As the gray, gloomy days continue, those hoping to schuss through the woods or slide down a hill are increasingly downbeat about their chances to do so.

Alec Clarke, the food and beverage director at The Homestead Resort, said there are still options for those looking for fun times and recreation. It’s just not going to be zipping downhill what he called “the non-existent ski season.” The slopes at The Homestead were open for just two days the week between Christmas and New Year’s, traditionally one of the busiest times of the year.

Instead, it’s things like hiking the trails, beach walks and bonfires. “There are still family options at the resort,” said Clarke.

That includes dedicating efforts to expanding and enhancing the resort’s casual eatery. “It’s given us time to focus on Whiskers. It’s an elevated experience for local (patrons) and our guests,” Clarke said.

Which is all well and good. But it would be nice to be able to ski, snowboard or ice skate, right? Clarke undoubtedly agrees with that sentiment, but it’s not happening anytime soon.

So, what is going on? Zoltowski says while there is a La Niña effect in the Pacific Ocean, causing rainfall in California, it hasn’t corresponded with the typical La Niña impact in this area, which would mean cooler temperatures and increased precipitation. Here, the weather pattern is more along the lines of El Niño year, with milder temperatures and precipitation at or below typical levels.

Zoltowski said while the mild weather is likely to continue, there is a potential benefit for those longing for a frosty coating of white. By this time in a more typical year, there is usually ice cover on at least a portion of Lake Michigan. The more ice, the less lake effect snow. “We are still in play for lake effect snow,” he noted.

Barrons says that over the years he’s observed that there’s typically a period during which the temperature is constantly below freezing, with highs generally in the 20s and lows in the teens or lower, and the occasional below-zero reading. It’s what he calls “core winter,” but he’s unsure whether that will happen this year. “I thought that (Christmas blizzard) would be the beginning of the core of winter,” he said.

Instead, it was the last real accumulation the region has seen. Coupled with above-average temperatures, the combination may also portend a further drop in lake levels this summer. According to the Mackinac Center for Public Policy, Lake Michigan can average a loss of ten trillion gallons of water each year. Barrons said that this winter, Lake Michigan has already lost seven trillion gallons due to what he said is extensive evaporation.

Is there any hope for snow and colder temperatures yet this year? Maybe, but it’s far from a sure bet. The long-range forecast through March from the National Weather Service suggests above-average temperatures are likely, as is above-average precipitation. Whether that precipitation is in the form of rain or snow remains to be seen.

Clarke, for one, hopes it’s the latter. “If, or when, the plan is to have the ski hill open as soon as it can,” he said.

This story sponsored by Art’s Tavern.